Is trend following the same as trend trading?

The same idea under two names. Trend following is the older term, from the systematic funds that have run rules across futures markets since the 1970s; trend trading is what retail traders call it. Both mean holding what is rising and selling what is falling by a rule fixed in advance, with no forecast. TideTrade is a trend-following rule applied to crypto: one published line, completed candles, every flip on the record.

What is trend trading?

Trend trading follows the direction of price instead of predicting it: hold an asset while it is above a line that follows its trend, sell when it closes below, and wait in cash until it comes back. The aim is to miss most of each large fall, at the cost of missing part of each recovery and paying small losses when a market goes sideways.

Does trend trading work in crypto?

In the pre-registered study behind TideTrade, 2019 to 2026, one trend rule on a basket of the 20 most-traded crypto assets had smaller falls than holding (a worst fall of 46% against 85%), a similar return overall and a lower one in recent years. 58% of its 682 round trips lost money. Past data is not a forecast.

What is the best indicator for trend trading?

There is no best one. Moving averages, breakout channels and volatility bands all follow price with a lag and all lose in sideways markets. What matters is applying one of them the same way every time. TideTrade uses the Supertrend indicator with period 10 and multiplier 3 because it is simple, public and on every charting platform.

How much money should a trend rule govern?

Decide a share before you look at a chart and keep the rest outside the rule. Split the governed share equally across the assets that are in trend, up to ten positions, with cash as the rest. Never borrow to hold a trend: leverage turns a survivable fall into a margin call.

How often do I need to check?

Once a week is enough. TideTrade reads states only after a candle has closed and sends alerts the night a flip happens; the study measured acting one full day after the close at about a point of return and three of drawdown over seven years. Check on Sunday, act on alerts the next day, and take every flip.

Is trend trading good for beginners?

Yes, with two things accepted in advance: the rule is wrong more often than it is right, and a run of small losses is what the method looks like most of the time. The longest run of losing trips in the study was 17. A public record of what the rule did is what keeps a beginner following it through that.

Guide

Crypto trend trading, or trend following: the rule, the costs and the record

Trend trading, also called trend following, is the plainest idea in markets: hold what is rising, sell what is falling, and do not argue with either. This page explains what crypto trend trading is, what one trend rule did in past data and what it cost, who it suits, and how TideTrade runs that rule on 140 crypto assets with every decision on a public record.

What trend trading is

A trend trader follows the direction of price rather than predicting it. While an asset is above a line that follows its trend, hold it. When it closes below, sell, move to cash and wait for the line to turn back up. Nobody tries to call the top or the bottom; the aim is to capture the middle of each large move and to be out of the way for most of each large fall. The line can be a moving average, a channel of recent highs and lows, or a volatility band such as the Supertrend indicator. The choice matters less than the discipline around it. The general guide to trend trading covers the idea across stocks, futures and currencies as well as crypto.

Price is the evidence. An asset is in an uptrend because its closes are above a line that follows its trend, and for no other reason: not news, not valuation, not opinion.
A rule decides, not a feeling. The line and the conditions for holding and selling are fixed in advance. The job is to follow them on the days it feels wrong, which are the days that matter.
Losses are small and frequent; gains are rare and large. Most moves never become trends, so a trend rule is wrong most of the time. It survives by cutting the failures early and letting the few real trends run.

What it did in past data, and what it costs

Crypto's problem is not that it goes nowhere. It is how far it falls on the way. Over 2019 to 2026 a basket of the twenty most-traded crypto assets lost 85% from peak to trough and still ended higher than it started. Most holders sold somewhere near the bottom or stopped looking. A trend rule's whole case is the fall you do not take.

TideTrade's rule was tested in a pre-registered study whose wording was fixed before the numbers existed. Its finding, in the words the study was allowed to use: in past data the rule had smaller falls; its return was similar overall and lower in recent years. The numbers behind the sentence: a worst fall of 46% against 85% for holding the same basket, and 42.5% a year against 38.5%. Past data is not a forecast, and the same study shows the rule losing to a plain hold in recent years. The dependable benefit is the smaller fall, not a higher return.

Whipsaws. In a sideways market the line is crossed again and again, and each crossing costs a little. In the study, 58% of the 682 round trips lost money; the average losing trip lost 14% and the longest run of losing trips was 17.
Missed rebounds. The rule sells after a fall has started and buys after a rise has started, so it misses the first part of every recovery: in the four large falls of the study period it avoided 41 to 95% of the damage and missed 38 to 72% of the rebounds that followed, so far.
Doubt. Most of the time you are holding something that drifts or sitting in cash while something you sold goes up. That is when people abandon a rule, usually just before it pays.

A trend trading strategy: how to run it

Risk management is the rule itself plus four habits, and the Tide Rules put them on one page. Decide what share of your money the rule governs before you look at a chart, and keep the rest outside it. Split the governed share equally across the assets whose tide is in, up to ten positions, so that no single coin can do real damage; whatever is not in a position is cash, and cash is a position. Act on a flip the day after the candle closes: the study measured that delay at about a point of return and three of drawdown over seven years, so nothing has to happen at midnight. Check on Sunday and take every flip, including the ones you dislike. Never borrow to hold a trend.

Who it suits

People who are not traders, because it asks almost nothing of them: no valuation to learn, no pattern to recognise, no news to interpret, nothing to watch during the day, decisions that are rare and mechanical. Experienced traders, as a benchmark their own discretion has probably never been measured against over a full cycle, and as a way to run the mechanical part of a book without spending attention on it. It does not suit anyone who needs to be right most of the time, wants to catch bottoms, or cannot sit in cash while a market they sold keeps rising.

Where TideTrade comes in

The hard part of trend trading is doing the same thing every day on every asset, and being able to prove afterwards that you did. TideTrade applies one mechanical rule, published in full, Supertrend(10, 3), to 140 crypto assets on completed daily and weekly candles, and shows each one as tide in, slack water or tide out.

One screen for the market. The scanner lists every asset with its state, the room between price and its line in percent and in ATR, and when it last flipped, with filters for state, tier and timeframe.
Completed candles only. About half of the flips seen on a forming candle reverse before it ends, so states and alerts are read after the close.
A record you can check. Every flip is on the ledger with the days held and the result to the next flip, labelled replayed, live, late or corrected, with a daily hash published so an edit would show.
Your own coins. The wallet check shows which of your holdings are below their lines from a public address, read-only.
Timing handled. A free account gets a Sunday digest; the email-only Sunday Tide Report needs no account; Pro sends an alert the night a flip happens, by email and Telegram, and comes with an API.

What it does not do: forecast, set targets, short, or use leverage. It shows the mechanical state of a published rule and keeps the record. How much of your money the rule governs stays your decision. If you are weighing it against a trading education product or a broad screener, the comparisons with Bullmania and altFINS set out the differences. If you are weighing it against a signals service, the guide to crypto trading signals sets out how to judge one.

Questions people ask about trend trading

Is trend following the same as trend trading?: The same idea under two names. Trend following is the older term, from the systematic funds that have run rules across futures markets since the 1970s; trend trading is what retail traders call it. Both mean holding what is rising and selling what is falling by a rule fixed in advance, with no forecast. TideTrade is a trend-following rule applied to crypto: one published line, completed candles, every flip on the record.
What is trend trading?: Trend trading follows the direction of price instead of predicting it: hold an asset while it is above a line that follows its trend, sell when it closes below, and wait in cash until it comes back. The aim is to miss most of each large fall, at the cost of missing part of each recovery and paying small losses when a market goes sideways.
Does trend trading work in crypto?: In the pre-registered study behind TideTrade, 2019 to 2026, one trend rule on a basket of the 20 most-traded crypto assets had smaller falls than holding (a worst fall of 46% against 85%), a similar return overall and a lower one in recent years. 58% of its 682 round trips lost money. Past data is not a forecast.
What is the best indicator for trend trading?: There is no best one. Moving averages, breakout channels and volatility bands all follow price with a lag and all lose in sideways markets. What matters is applying one of them the same way every time. TideTrade uses the Supertrend indicator with period 10 and multiplier 3 because it is simple, public and on every charting platform.
How much money should a trend rule govern?: Decide a share before you look at a chart and keep the rest outside the rule. Split the governed share equally across the assets that are in trend, up to ten positions, with cash as the rest. Never borrow to hold a trend: leverage turns a survivable fall into a margin call.
How often do I need to check?: Once a week is enough. TideTrade reads states only after a candle has closed and sends alerts the night a flip happens; the study measured acting one full day after the close at about a point of return and three of drawdown over seven years. Check on Sunday, act on alerts the next day, and take every flip.
Is trend trading good for beginners?: Yes, with two things accepted in advance: the rule is wrong more often than it is right, and a run of small losses is what the method looks like most of the time. The longest run of losing trips in the study was 17. A public record of what the rule did is what keeps a beginner following it through that.

Open the scanner How the line works The Tide Rules Read the study Sunday Tide Report Judging signal services

TideTrade is decision support, not financial advice. Cryptoassets are high-risk; trend rules lose money in sideways markets and past states do not predict future prices. See the disclaimer. Figures are from the published, pre-registered study and the Rules page.