# What Rule v1 did on crypto — study report 2026-10-11

Pre-registration `apps/research/docs/preregistration-crypto-study-2026-10-12.md` · snapshot `fd1d67415b8f8408…` (Yahoo daily, 126 crypto assets) · period 2019-01-01 → 2026-10-09 (7.78 years) · seed 2026

## Acceptance test

**PASS.** 140 assets: 77922 stored rows after each asset's convergence point, 0 mismatches; 18356 seed-region rows excluded by construction; 405 live rows, 0 mismatches. Live flips since 2026-10-08: 8 of 8 match the replay (1 late, shown separately).

## Claim ladder outcome

**Ladder B.** In past data the rule had smaller falls; its return was similar overall and lower in recent years. (Wording per deviation D1, 2026-10-12.)

Drawdown reduction vs B2 45.8% · beats B4 (exposure-matched): yes · beats B5 random-timing p90: no · both halves: yes · at stress costs: yes · return capture 1.10

## Headline (point-in-time Core basket, equal weight, base costs 0.30 %/side)

| | Rule v1 | B2 buy & hold Core | B3 Bitcoin | B4 exposure-matched |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAGR | 42.5% | 38.5% | 48.4% | 38.3% |
| Max drawdown | -46.1% | -85.1% | -76.6% | -83.1% |
| Ulcer index | 26.69 | 59.01 | 37.28 | 56.38 |
| Calmar | 0.92 | 0.45 | 0.63 | 0.46 |
| Sharpe | 1.04 | 0.82 | 0.96 | 0.82 |
| Days under water, longest / typical | 922 / 3 | 1980 / 3 | 846 / 4 | 1980 / 3 |
| Time in market | 95.2% | 100.0% | 99.9% | 100.0% |
| Up / down capture | 0.47 / 0.44 | — / — | — / — | — / — |

Return capture (strategy CAGR ÷ B2 CAGR): **1.10**. Drawdown reduction: **45.8%**. Random timing (B5, K=1000): max DD p90 -47.4%, median -54.6%; Ulcer p10 23.22, median 29.69.

## Whipsaw and experience (Core round trips)

682 round trips, 87.7 per year across the basket · losing share 58.2% · average win 48.7% / loss -14.2% · profit factor 2.46 · average 36.5 days held · longest run of losing trips 17 · whipsaw rate (lost within 10 days) 12.0%.

Worst 6-month stretch vs B2: from 2020-11-10, strategy 317.8% vs basket 775.6% (-457.9% relative).

## Costs and execution

| Variant | CAGR | Max DD | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|
| zero cost | 46.4% | -44.6% | 1.11 |
| base 0.30 % | 42.5% | -46.1% | 1.04 |
| stress 0.60 % | 38.7% | -48.0% | 0.98 |
| base, one day later | 41.5% | -49.1% | 1.02 |

## Episodes (Bitcoin drawdowns ≥ 30 %)

| Peak | Trough | Depth | Basket fall | Strategy fall | Fall avoided | Basket rebound | Strategy rebound | Rebound missed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-06-26 | 2020-03-12 | 62% | -53.8% | -3.0% | 95% | 247.5% | 68.6% | 72% |
| 2021-04-13 | 2021-07-20 | 53% | -41.9% | -24.9% | 41% | 108.9% | 55.5% | 49% |
| 2021-11-08 | 2022-11-21 | 77% | -80.7% | -41.4% | 49% | 122.3% | 66.7% | 46% |
| 2025-10-06 | 2026-06-30 | 53% | -50.2% | -15.5% | 69% | 88.2% | 54.4% | 38% |

## Calendar years

| Year | Rule v1 | B2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 21.9% | 20.4% |
| 2020 | 170.9% | 241.2% |
| 2021 | 239.3% | 348.8% |
| 2022 | -34.0% | -75.7% |
| 2023 | 61.2% | 98.7% |
| 2024 | -1.3% | 35.2% |
| 2025 | -1.1% | -18.8% |
| 2026 | 35.2% | 29.0% |

## Robustness

- first half: max DD -43.6% vs B2 -84.6% (reduction 48.5%), CAGR 69.2% vs 49.1%.
- second half: max DD -45.9% vs B2 -58.0% (reduction 20.9%), CAGR 20.1% vs 28.7%.
- Extended (whole universe): max DD -52.1% vs -84.0%, CAGR 73.8% vs 55.0%.
- Bitcoin alone: max DD -53.9% vs -76.6%, CAGR 29.0% vs 48.4%.
- Altcoin basket (Core without BTC): max DD -46.7% vs -85.8%, CAGR 42.8% vs 37.3%.
- Date-block bootstrap (B=2000, strategy − B2, 95 % intervals): CAGR difference 0.9% [-57.7%, 40.4%]; Sharpe difference 0.22 [-0.24, 0.68]; max-drawdown difference (positive = shallower) 26.6% [7.3%, 45.5%].
- Leave-one-episode-out (removing 2021-11-08 → 2024-03-04, depth 77%): max DD -45.9% vs B2 -65.7% (reduction 30.1%).

### Nearby parameters (disclosure, not a search) — max drawdown / CAGR on the Core basket

| ATR period \ multiplier | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | 3.5 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | -50% / 44% | -46% / 44% | -49% / 45% | -55% / 41% | -61% / 42% |
| 10 | -52% / 40% | -45% / 46% | -46% / 43% **(v1)** | -50% / 39% | -60% / 41% |
| 14 | -48% / 38% | -41% / 44% | -44% / 44% | -49% / 38% | -58% / 39% |

Rule v1 is not an isolated peak among its neighbours.

## Core membership by quarter (point-in-time)

- 2019-01-01 (30 eligible): btc, eth, bch, dash, ltc, zec, neo, xmr, etc, qtum, mkr, xrp, bnb, xlm, zrx, gno, fil, bnt, xtz, trx
- 2019-04-01 (34 eligible): btc, eth, ltc, bch, dash, zec, xmr, neo, bnb, mkr, etc, qtum, xrp, xlm, fil, trx, link, zrx, xtz, bat
- 2019-07-01 (36 eligible): btc, eth, bch, ltc, dash, zec, bnb, xmr, neo, etc, mkr, qtum, xrp, xlm, fil, link, trx, bat, ada, zrx
- 2019-10-01 (40 eligible): btc, eth, bch, ltc, dash, zec, xmr, bnb, etc, neo, mkr, qtum, xrp, link, qnt, fil, xtz, trx, xlm, bat
- 2020-01-01 (41 eligible): btc, eth, bch, ltc, dash, xmr, zec, bnb, neo, mkr, etc, qtum, xrp, link, xtz, qnt, fil, trx, xlm, bat
- 2020-04-01 (44 eligible): btc, eth, bch, ltc, dash, zec, etc, xmr, neo, bnb, mkr, qtum, link, atom, xrp, xtz, fil, trx, xlm, bat
- 2020-07-01 (47 eligible): btc, eth, bch, ltc, dash, zec, etc, xmr, bnb, neo, mkr, link, qtum, atom, xrp, xtz, fil, xlm, nmr, trx
- 2020-10-01 (51 eligible): btc, eth, bch, ltc, zec, dash, mkr, link, xmr, neo, bnb, etc, atom, qtum, band, xtz, xrp, snx, fil, nmr
- 2021-01-01 (56 eligible): btc, eth, bch, ltc, xmr, dash, zec, mkr, link, bnb, neo, fil, etc, xrp, ksm, atom, trb, qtum, band, xtz
- 2021-04-01 (56 eligible): btc, eth, bch, ltc, bnb, mkr, xmr, dash, zec, link, ksm, neo, fil, etc, atom, ada, snx, qtum, xrp, trb
- 2021-07-01 (62 eligible): btc, eth, bch, bnb, ltc, mkr, dash, etc, xmr, fil, zec, comp, ksm, neo, link, sol, qtum, atom, xrp, trb
- 2021-10-01 (71 eligible): btc, eth, yfi, bch, bnb, mkr, ltc, etc, sol, comp, dash, ksm, xmr, fil, dot, link, zec, neo, avax, egld
- 2022-01-01 (81 eligible): btc, eth, yfi, bnb, bch, sol, ltc, mkr, avax, aave, axs, zec, dot, xmr, dash, egld, ksm, comp, etc, fil
- 2022-04-01 (85 eligible): btc, eth, yfi, bch, bnb, sol, mkr, ltc, avax, aave, zec, xmr, atom, egld, dot, dash, axs, link, etc, ksm
- 2022-07-01 (91 eligible): btc, eth, yfi, bch, bnb, mkr, sol, ltc, xmr, avax, aave, zec, etc, dash, ksm, egld, dot, axs, comp, atom
- 2022-10-01 (95 eligible): btc, eth, yfi, bnb, mkr, sol, bch, etc, ltc, aave, xmr, avax, comp, atom, zec, qnt, dash, link, dot, egld
- 2023-01-01 (99 eligible): btc, eth, bnb, yfi, ltc, bch, mkr, sol, xmr, qnt, aave, etc, dash, avax, zec, link, atom, egld, dot, comp
- 2023-04-01 (102 eligible): btc, eth, yfi, bnb, ltc, mkr, bch, sol, xmr, aave, dash, etc, avax, qnt, zec, atom, link, dot, comp, fil
- 2023-07-01 (103 eligible): btc, eth, bnb, yfi, ltc, mkr, bch, xmr, sol, aave, dash, avax, qnt, etc, link, atom, dot, zec, egld, fil
- 2023-10-01 (103 eligible): btc, eth, yfi, bnb, mkr, bch, ltc, xmr, sol, aave, comp, etc, qnt, link, avax, dash, zec, atom, xrp, gno
- 2024-01-01 (104 eligible): btc, eth, yfi, bnb, sol, mkr, bch, ltc, xmr, aave, link, avax, trb, etc, comp, qnt, egld, zec, gno, inj
- 2024-04-01 (106 eligible): btc, eth, bnb, sol, yfi, mkr, bch, ltc, avax, aave, xmr, link, etc, inj, trb, gno, comp, qnt, egld, fil
- 2024-07-01 (108 eligible): btc, eth, bnb, sol, mkr, bch, yfi, ltc, avax, aave, xmr, etc, link, trb, gno, near, inj, render, comp, qnt
- 2024-10-01 (110 eligible): btc, eth, bnb, sol, mkr, bch, yfi, aave, ltc, xmr, avax, link, trb, etc, zec, inj, ens, comp, near, dash
- 2025-01-01 (113 eligible): btc, eth, bnb, sol, bch, yfi, mkr, aave, ltc, avax, link, xmr, xrp, etc, zec, apt, sui, uni, ens, inj
- 2025-04-01 (119 eligible): btc, eth, bnb, sol, yfi, mkr, bch, aave, ltc, xrp, xmr, link, avax, sui, etc, comp, qnt, ens, zec, uni
- 2025-07-01 (121 eligible): btc, eth, bnb, sol, bch, mkr, yfi, aave, ltc, xmr, xrp, avax, link, sui, zec, qnt, comp, uni, etc, ens
- 2025-10-01 (122 eligible): btc, eth, bnb, sol, bch, aave, mkr, yfi, ltc, xmr, xrp, link, avax, sui, uni, zec, etc, qnt, ens, inj
- 2026-01-01 (123 eligible): btc, eth, bnb, sol, zec, bch, xmr, aave, yfi, ltc, hype, link, xrp, dash, avax, mkr, uni, qnt, sui, etc
- 2026-04-01 (124 eligible): btc, eth, bnb, sol, bch, zec, yfi, aave, xmr, ltc, hype, link, xrp, dash, avax, qnt, uni, comp, sui, etc
- 2026-07-01 (125 eligible): btc, eth, bnb, sol, zec, bch, xmr, yfi, hype, aave, ltc, link, dash, xrp, avax, comp, qnt, uni, trb, near
- 2026-10-01 (126 eligible): btc, eth, bnb, zec, sol, xmr, hype, bch, aave, ltc, yfi, link, dash, xrp, avax, uni, near, qnt, inj, vvv

## Per-asset (B1), base costs

| Asset | Core quarters | Rule v1 CAGR | B&H CAGR | Rule v1 max DD | B&H max DD | DD reduction | Trades/yr | Whipsaw |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH | 32 | 52.3% | 44.7% | -53.2% | -79.3% | 32.9% | 4.4 | 14.7% |
| BNB | 32 | 86.3% | 85.7% | -51.7% | -75.9% | 31.8% | 4.4 | 5.9% |
| BTC | 32 | 29.0% | 48.4% | -53.9% | -76.6% | 29.6% | 5.0 | 17.9% |
| LTC | 32 | -12.3% | 9.3% | -94.1% | -89.5% | -5.1% | 5.1 | 12.5% |
| BCH | 32 | -5.2% | 7.0% | -78.9% | -94.2% | 16.2% | 4.9 | 7.9% |
| XMR | 32 | 22.9% | 35.7% | -69.0% | -78.5% | 12.0% | 3.7 | 10.3% |
| ETC | 30 | 0.8% | 6.1% | -91.6% | -95.5% | 4.0% | 5.0 | 7.7% |
| ZEC | 30 | 36.9% | 47.3% | -90.3% | -94.3% | 4.2% | 4.9 | 7.9% |
| LINK | 29 | 23.1% | 62.3% | -89.6% | -90.2% | 0.7% | 4.6 | 8.3% |
| MKR | 29 | 6.7% | 18.9% | -89.0% | -91.6% | 2.8% | 4.2 | 15.2% |
| DASH | 25 | 9.7% | -5.8% | -90.6% | -95.9% | 5.5% | 5.0 | 15.4% |
| SOL | 22 | 139.1% | 107.6% | -73.4% | -96.3% | 23.8% | 4.5 | 17.2% |
| AVAX | 21 | 63.2% | 13.1% | -79.1% | -95.6% | 17.3% | 4.5 | 14.8% |
| YFI | 21 | 39.7% | 13.2% | -79.0% | -98.0% | 19.4% | 3.9 | 4.2% |
| XRP | 20 | 26.2% | 18.9% | -70.5% | -83.2% | 15.3% | 4.0 | 6.5% |
| AAVE | 20 | 55.4% | 21.1% | -74.0% | -92.2% | 19.7% | 3.8 | 13.0% |
| QNT | 17 | 69.2% | 84.2% | -72.8% | -89.2% | 18.4% | 4.0 | 9.7% |
| FIL | 16 | 37.0% | -12.0% | -91.8% | -99.7% | 7.9% | 3.2 | 16.0% |
| COMP | 16 | 3.6% | -14.0% | -83.7% | -98.2% | 14.8% | 4.1 | 15.4% |
| ATOM | 13 | 0.1% | -14.9% | -78.1% | -97.2% | 19.6% | 4.6 | 8.6% |
| NEO | 12 | 18.9% | -13.4% | -84.0% | -98.7% | 14.8% | 4.1 | 9.4% |
| QTUM | 11 | 15.0% | -9.8% | -68.4% | -97.7% | 29.9% | 4.1 | 9.4% |
| EGLD | 9 | 14.4% | -21.6% | -86.4% | -99.5% | 13.1% | 4.7 | 10.3% |
| DOT | 8 | 23.4% | -12.7% | -79.8% | -98.6% | 19.1% | 4.2 | 15.4% |
| UNI | 8 | 67.8% | 1.5% | -64.3% | -94.4% | 31.9% | 3.6 | 9.1% |
| XTZ | 8 | -0.1% | -5.7% | -86.3% | -97.8% | 11.7% | 4.4 | 8.8% |
| TRB | 8 | 49.3% | 45.1% | -87.3% | -95.1% | 8.2% | 4.2 | 13.8% |
| XLM | 7 | 1.9% | 7.0% | -85.2% | -90.3% | 5.6% | 5.0 | 12.8% |
| TRX | 7 | 24.1% | 43.8% | -69.3% | -77.3% | 10.4% | 4.2 | 9.1% |
| INJ | 7 | 80.6% | 46.8% | -86.3% | -94.7% | 8.9% | 4.0 | 16.7% |
| KSM | 7 | 96.7% | 16.0% | -75.4% | -99.5% | 24.2% | 3.4 | 17.4% |
| SUI | 6 | 51.4% | -6.5% | -58.7% | -87.7% | 33.0% | 4.1 | 21.4% |
| GNO | 5 | 27.6% | 34.8% | -62.8% | -86.4% | 27.4% | 5.1 | 20.0% |
| BAT | 5 | 44.6% | 0.9% | -72.4% | -96.8% | 25.2% | 3.7 | 17.2% |
| ENS | 5 | -1.9% | -32.4% | -85.3% | -94.9% | 10.2% | 3.9 | 15.8% |
| NEAR | 4 | 80.5% | 28.5% | -85.3% | -95.2% | 10.4% | 4.3 | 15.4% |
| HYPE | 4 | 49.6% | 302.1% | -54.2% | -68.4% | 20.7% | 3.2 | 0.0% |
| AXS | 3 | 25.8% | 43.5% | -82.5% | -99.5% | 17.1% | 4.9 | 6.9% |
| ZRX | 3 | 38.4% | -10.8% | -75.6% | -96.8% | 21.8% | 3.7 | 3.4% |
| ADA | 2 | 33.8% | 25.5% | -88.0% | -95.2% | 7.5% | 4.5 | 11.4% |
| SNX | 2 | 25.2% | 24.8% | -98.5% | -99.3% | 0.8% | 4.6 | 11.1% |
| BAND | 2 | 11.8% | -12.8% | -94.2% | -99.3% | 5.1% | 3.8 | 11.1% |
| NMR | 2 | -6.4% | 24.9% | -91.5% | -93.0% | 1.7% | 3.6 | 7.1% |
| APT | 1 | 3.3% | -41.3% | -86.9% | -97.2% | 10.6% | 4.5 | 16.7% |
| RENDER | 1 | 75.6% | 75.0% | -81.8% | -95.8% | 14.6% | 4.1 | 11.5% |
| BNT | 1 | 48.0% | -8.6% | -69.4% | -97.3% | 28.7% | 4.0 | 3.2% |
| VVV | 1 | 169.3% | 223.3% | -79.8% | -80.9% | 1.4% | 5.1 | 25.0% |
| DOGE | 0 | 47.4% | 58.5% | -88.1% | -92.3% | 4.5% | 4.5 | 5.7% |
| ALGO | 0 | 13.8% | -36.2% | -85.9% | -97.5% | 12.0% | 4.5 | 15.2% |
| ICP | 0 | -6.4% | -58.5% | -78.0% | -99.5% | 21.6% | 4.1 | 13.6% |
| GRT | 0 | 7.0% | -32.3% | -82.7% | -99.4% | 16.8% | 4.5 | 23.1% |
| ARB | 0 | -14.3% | -42.2% | -58.1% | -96.8% | 40.0% | 4.8 | 5.9% |
| FET | 0 | 73.4% | -7.5% | -77.7% | -97.6% | 20.4% | 3.9 | 10.0% |
| SEI | 0 | 37.3% | -26.1% | -76.2% | -96.3% | 20.8% | 4.1 | 15.4% |
| STX | 0 | 42.4% | 9.7% | -84.2% | -96.7% | 13.0% | 3.7 | 15.4% |
| IMX | 0 | -4.5% | -44.8% | -87.9% | -98.9% | 11.2% | 4.3 | 14.3% |
| LDO | 0 | -3.5% | -21.6% | -91.6% | -96.3% | 4.9% | 4.7 | 11.1% |
| CRV | 0 | -3.0% | -43.1% | -90.9% | -98.4% | 7.7% | 4.4 | 11.1% |
| SAND | 0 | 50.3% | 0.4% | -89.8% | -99.6% | 9.8% | 4.9 | 33.3% |
| FLOW | 0 | 10.2% | -60.6% | -77.3% | -99.9% | 22.7% | 4.0 | 8.7% |
| MANA | 0 | 44.7% | 9.5% | -85.3% | -98.8% | 13.7% | 4.0 | 25.8% |
| KAS | 0 | 166.4% | 245.0% | -67.0% | -87.7% | 23.6% | 4.4 | 5.3% |
| VET | 0 | 65.1% | 8.6% | -70.0% | -98.3% | 28.8% | 3.7 | 17.2% |
| MNT | 0 | 41.5% | 3.5% | -51.4% | -85.4% | 39.8% | 5.3 | 23.5% |
| POL | 0 | -6.8% | -46.6% | -41.4% | -94.6% | 56.2% | 4.4 | 7.7% |
| ZRO | 0 | -35.1% | -21.0% | -88.0% | -90.0% | 2.2% | 5.6 | 7.7% |
| CAKE | 0 | 76.1% | 12.5% | -76.4% | -97.5% | 21.6% | 4.8 | 17.2% |
| ONDO | 0 | 52.7% | 34.4% | -63.5% | -89.0% | 28.6% | 3.7 | 10.0% |
| ETHFI | 0 | -11.6% | -44.6% | -77.5% | -96.4% | 19.6% | 3.5 | 0.0% |
| AERO | 0 | 271.3% | 139.5% | -72.3% | -87.4% | 17.2% | 4.8 | 23.1% |
| ENA | 0 | 30.4% | -39.5% | -63.2% | -95.1% | 33.6% | 4.0 | 30.0% |
| PYTH | 0 | -2.3% | -35.7% | -83.3% | -97.2% | 14.3% | 3.8 | 9.1% |
| SHIB | 0 | 3.6% | 20.0% | -98.8% | -94.9% | -4.1% | 6.2 | 23.5% |
| PEPE | 0 | -37.3% | 49.8% | -92.8% | -92.3% | -0.5% | 5.2 | 33.3% |
| JTO | 0 | -53.6% | -40.4% | -95.7% | -95.2% | -0.6% | 5.3 | 20.0% |
| ENJ | 0 | 49.0% | -3.2% | -80.8% | -99.6% | 18.9% | 4.4 | 14.7% |
| DYDX | 0 | -33.1% | -59.9% | -91.9% | -99.7% | 7.8% | 4.6 | 17.4% |
| LRC | 0 | 27.9% | -16.9% | -87.0% | -99.8% | 12.8% | 3.9 | 16.7% |
| 1INCH | 0 | -14.1% | -42.1% | -88.1% | -99.1% | 11.2% | 4.5 | 11.5% |
| BAL | 0 | -11.1% | -52.4% | -94.9% | -99.9% | 5.0% | 4.4 | 0.0% |
| SUSHI | 0 | 2.0% | -32.1% | -90.5% | -99.4% | 8.9% | 4.1 | 16.0% |
| KNC | 0 | -13.7% | -36.1% | -81.9% | -98.2% | 16.6% | 3.8 | 5.0% |
| RPL | 0 | -31.9% | 18.3% | -99.1% | -97.9% | -1.2% | 5.9 | 28.3% |
| CVX | 0 | 25.4% | -23.9% | -73.1% | -97.9% | 25.3% | 4.4 | 16.7% |
| TRAC | 0 | 67.2% | 46.1% | -82.1% | -94.4% | 13.0% | 4.1 | 15.6% |
| AUDIO | 0 | 0.6% | -33.7% | -93.7% | -99.7% | 6.0% | 3.3 | 10.0% |
| ANKR | 0 | 58.6% | -12.3% | -66.7% | -98.3% | 32.2% | 3.5 | 0.0% |
| STORJ | 0 | 2.0% | -18.9% | -95.2% | -99.1% | 4.0% | 4.1 | 9.4% |
| LPT | 0 | -7.4% | -9.6% | -98.7% | -98.4% | -0.3% | 4.1 | 18.8% |
| MINA | 0 | 21.3% | -49.3% | -80.7% | -99.4% | 18.8% | 3.9 | 4.8% |
| GLMR | 0 | -35.8% | -77.3% | -94.3% | -100.0% | 5.7% | 4.8 | 26.1% |
| KAVA | 0 | -1.9% | -34.5% | -94.0% | -99.5% | 5.6% | 3.9 | 14.8% |
| CTSI | 0 | 20.0% | -7.2% | -89.1% | -98.8% | 9.8% | 4.0 | 15.4% |
| UMA | 0 | -4.5% | -16.7% | -96.7% | -99.1% | 2.4% | 3.9 | 8.0% |
| YGG | 0 | -6.7% | -53.1% | -90.1% | -99.8% | 9.7% | 3.6 | 15.8% |
| FLUX | 0 | 55.9% | 16.3% | -86.3% | -98.8% | 12.7% | 3.7 | 24.1% |
| CHZ | 0 | 41.7% | -1.3% | -84.5% | -98.5% | 14.2% | 4.3 | 12.9% |
| BICO | 0 | -49.3% | -74.1% | -98.3% | -99.9% | 1.6% | 4.7 | 8.7% |
| JUP | 0 | -5.4% | -20.3% | -85.1% | -92.1% | 7.7% | 4.4 | 0.0% |
| FLR | 0 | 1.0% | -37.7% | -76.0% | -88.7% | 14.3% | 4.3 | 6.3% |
| THETA | 0 | 74.8% | 21.4% | -82.6% | -99.1% | 16.7% | 3.9 | 10.0% |
| HBAR | 0 | 16.5% | 0.3% | -90.6% | -92.8% | 2.4% | 4.4 | 19.4% |
| IOTX | 0 | 41.9% | -9.0% | -82.2% | -99.1% | 17.0% | 3.7 | 10.3% |
| SKL | 0 | -2.4% | -37.9% | -93.6% | -99.6% | 6.0% | 4.3 | 8.0% |
| APE | 0 | -26.7% | -62.2% | -84.3% | -99.7% | 15.5% | 4.4 | 30.0% |
| LQTY | 0 | -25.5% | -56.6% | -91.5% | -99.7% | 8.2% | 4.2 | 30.4% |
| RSR | 0 | -20.6% | -9.5% | -97.9% | -99.0% | 1.1% | 5.1 | 18.4% |
| XDC | 0 | 59.8% | 63.2% | -81.3% | -88.7% | 8.3% | 4.8 | 18.9% |
| VIRTUAL | 0 | 297.6% | 194.6% | -80.3% | -90.5% | 11.3% | 5.3 | 7.1% |
| ZIL | 0 | 26.9% | -20.3% | -82.5% | -99.1% | 16.7% | 4.0 | 16.1% |
| WAXP | 0 | 29.1% | -21.6% | -77.2% | -99.6% | 22.5% | 3.9 | 3.3% |
| ROSE | 0 | 55.7% | -22.3% | -80.8% | -99.1% | 18.5% | 3.4 | 0.0% |
| CKB | 0 | 24.3% | -21.8% | -76.7% | -98.1% | 21.7% | 3.8 | 7.7% |
| DUSK | 0 | 36.4% | -10.7% | -87.9% | -96.3% | 8.8% | 4.4 | 15.6% |
| RUNE | 0 | 168.8% | 66.7% | -71.2% | -98.4% | 27.7% | 4.2 | 6.7% |
| PENDLE | 0 | 54.5% | 13.9% | -79.3% | -98.5% | 19.5% | 4.6 | 4.0% |
| AKT | 0 | 70.5% | 9.8% | -78.8% | -97.5% | 19.2% | 4.5 | 11.1% |
| ASTR | 0 | -6.1% | -49.7% | -82.3% | -98.6% | 16.5% | 4.2 | 20.0% |
| JASMY | 0 | 25.1% | -62.4% | -92.6% | -99.9% | 7.3% | 3.7 | 14.3% |
| RAY | 0 | 90.3% | -18.0% | -75.3% | -99.2% | 24.1% | 3.9 | 13.6% |
| SSV | 0 | -1.4% | -27.1% | -91.6% | -96.9% | 5.5% | 4.0 | 10.0% |
| CFG | 0 | -23.8% | -25.5% | -92.0% | -96.7% | 4.9% | 4.6 | 8.3% |
| EIGEN | 0 | -67.1% | -75.1% | -92.0% | -97.3% | 5.4% | 5.4 | 9.1% |
| FF | 0 | 14.8% | -60.6% | -38.0% | -79.4% | 52.1% | 2.9 | 33.3% |
| USELESS | 0 | -26.2% | 96.5% | -93.8% | -92.7% | -1.1% | 6.0 | 12.5% |
| STRK | 0 | -6.6% | -67.2% | -86.2% | -99.2% | 13.1% | 3.8 | 20.0% |

## Data checks

126 series: 169 missing days in total, 255 zero-volume days, 642 daily moves above 40 % (listed in the JSON). Excluded: op (data quality: a 200,020% daily move is a bad print), tao (data quality: a 69,522% daily move is a bad print), ton (data quality: a 8,853% daily move is a bad print), morpho (fetch failed: yahoo MORPHO-USD: HTTP 404), tia (data quality: a 68,063,639% daily move is a bad print), wld (data quality: a 31,092% daily move is a bad print), pump (fetch failed: yahoo PUMP-USD: HTTP 404), spx6900 (fetch failed: yahoo SPX6900-USD: HTTP 404), gala (only 1 candles), pieverse (only 332 candles), canton (only 336 candles), pons (only 84 candles), night (data quality: a 3,288,000% daily move is a bad print), lit (only 293 candles).

## Limitations

Crypto history is short with few full cycles; assets are highly correlated so the effective sample is far smaller than the asset count; survivorship bias is only partly removable (delisted assets are not in this source); results describe the past, and real execution, fees and discipline differ from the simulation. Yahoo prices are a composite, not a venue; the acceptance test ties the rule to the production venues separately.